BadgerBlitz.com' brings back its All-Out Blitz weekly series, where you can find everything you need to know about Wisconsin's next opponent. We look at UW's first non-conference foe in Illinois State, which comes to Camp Randall Stadium for a Saturday evening showdown (6 p.m. CT, FS1).
QUICK PROGRAM FACTS
Head Coach: Brock Spack (89-60 at Illinois State)
Illinois State All-Time Record: 471–510–68 (.449 winning percentage)
2021 Record: 4-7
Rankings: N/A
Series vs. Wisconsin: First meeting
In Madison: N/A
WHEN ILLINOIS STATE HAS THE BALL
The Redbirds are trying to add juice to an offense that averaged just 18.4 points-per-game last season. They're led by ex-Minnesota Gophers gunslinger Zack Annexstad. Annexstad hasn't seen meaningful college football playing time since 2018, when he threw 1,277 yards, nine touchdowns and seven interceptions for the Golden Gophers. He struggled with consistency and accuracy, completing just 51.9% of his passes. Annexstad is no stranger to Big Ten football, but playing a Jim Leonhard defense under the lights is a rude re-introduction.
When he drops back to pass, he'll have a mostly familiar group of targets to throw to. At receiver, Tristan Bailey and J'Kalon Carter are being asked to step up in a big way. Despite their minimal experience (seven and six catches in 2021, respectively), Bailey and Carter are listed as starters at wide out. The Redbirds also lose their leading receiver from a season ago, Austin Nagel, but they return other key targets that figure to play big roles. The tight end duo of Bryson Deming and Tanner Taula that combined for 26 catches, 244 yards and two touchdowns is back.
As is the Redbirds' leading rusher from a season ago, Cole Mueller. Mueller had a very productive 2021 season, rushing for 977 yards and six touchdowns on a healthy 5.2 yards-per-carry. After that, though, Illinois State's returning rushing production falls off a cliff. Mueller's primary backup, Wenkers Wright, only tallied two carries last season.
Illinois State's best hope against the Badgers is to slow everything down and try to grind out yards as best they can, almost like a triple-option team. Facing a much more talented Badgers defense, gains of four, five, and six yards must be considered wins. What they must avoid is getting into obvious passing situations that allow Wisconsin's pass-rushers to get warmed up. Annexstad is far from mobile, and he could be a sitting duck for the likes of Nick Herbig in third-and-longs on Saturday night.
There should be a feeling-out process here for both teams. Illinois State's only clear top option is the running back Mueller. Annexstad doesn't have a cemented No.1 target to throw to, and he's just getting acclimated to the offense himself. It'll be interesting to see how cohesive the Redbirds look against a vaunted Badgers defense.
WHEN WISCONSIN HAS THE BALL
Expect a heavy dose of ground-and-pound from the Badgers on Saturday. Against an FCS team like Illinois State, there's no reason to put everything the offense has been working on during the offseason on display. The emphasis of offseason work has clearly been the passing game, and while it shouldn't be featured prominently, it would be disquieting not to see tangible improvement when Graham Mertz drops back to pass.
The entire running back room should have their hands full with carries on Saturday. If Wisconsin is nursing a big lead in the second half, there's no need to give Braelon Allen more than 20 or 25 carries. Wisconsin's coaching staff will be extra mindful of Allen's workload throughout the season, and will look to keep him as fresh as possible. Chez Mellusi should be heavily involved on Saturday, as should Isaac Guerendo. But even past that, Julius Davis should get some carries. Brady Schipper might be involved on passing downs.
Across the line of scrimmage, Illinois State's defense is the calling card of their team. Last season, they posted an impressive Pro Football Focus defensive grade of 89.9. Their run defense, especially, was a powerful force. This won't deter the Badgers — they'll test that run defense immediately with their one-two-three punch at tailback.
Wisconsin's first priority, as per usual, will be establishing the run. Once they do that, the passing game will open up for Mertz and company. Look for his new starting pass-catchers, like Skyler Bell and Clay Cundiff, to make an impact right away. Offensive coordinator Bobby Engram has stressed using his personnel in a way that fits their style of play the best. How will he involve the twitchy Dean Engram or the rumbling Jackson Acker? Expect Wisconsin's offense to experiment a little, as they tweak concepts to optimize Engram's new system.
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