All-Out Blitz: Northwestern vs. No. 18 Wisconsin

Wisconsin continues its march towards a division crown if it wins out its remaining games, but it will first need to stop a familiar foe during its penultimate home contest. UW (6-3 overall, 4-2 Big Ten) currently holds a five-game winning streak as it hosts beleaguered Northwestern (3-6, 1-5) this weekend.

BadgerBlitz.com unveils its weekly "All-Out Blitz" column, highlighting key matchups on both sides of the ball when the two Big Ten West teams clash in Camp Randall Stadium on Saturday (11 a.m. CT, ESPN2).

Northwestern comes into Saturday's contest averaging only 18.2 points and 341.6 total yards per game while converting 37% of its third downs. It will attempt to move the ball on a Wisconsin defense that ranks first in the nation in total defense (213.8 yards per game) and third-down conversion defense (24.0%). It also places fourth currently in scoring defense (15.4 points per game).

Northwestern's offense averages 191.2 passing yards per game, but its quarterbacks have only completed 57% of their throws with 12 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Quarterback Andrew Marty (60.5% completion percentage, 514 yards, five touchdowns, three interceptions in four games) recorded a 270-yard performance last week against Iowa, but the Hawkeyes also picked him off three times.

Inside linebacker Jack Sanborn, when asked about the Wildcats' offense, first pointed to the program's signal callers.

"You start kinda at the quarterback spot," Sanborn said on Monday. "It kind of seems like they can go a number of ways. So definitely something that we're gonna have to be aware of. It seems like every week, we go a new week, and we're like, 'Oh, multiple quarterbacks can play.' One guy's this, one guy's that, so kind of almost seems like one of those weeks.

"They run more of a pro-style offense compared to last week, so it's kind of getting back to what we're almost used to. But they run different schemes that some people haven't really done against us, and they have a good coaching staff so they're going to try to get us in certain situations where they can take advantage of maybe an alignment that we have and things like that. I think it's gonna be a fun game to play in, a little bit of a chess match maybe, but I'm looking forward to it. I think it's gonna be a good challenge, and a challenge that we're gonna be ready for."

The Wildcats average 150.4 rushing yards per game on 4.2 yards per carry. The big name to watch is tailback Evan Hull, a 5-foot-11, 210-pound sophomore who has carried the ball 127 times for 791 yards (6.2 yards per carry) and five touchdowns. He also is a threat out of the backfield, reeling in 22 receptions for 205 yards and two additional touchdowns.

However, Wisconsin counters that by bringing in the nation's No. 1 defense against the run, allowing 54.7 yards per contest on only 1.9 yards per attempt. UW's front seven has dominated the line of scrimmage throughout the season. The inside linebacker duo of Jack Sanborn and Leo Chenal have combined for 131 tackles, 22 tackles for loss and 8.5 sacks. Those in front of the tandem, a starting defensive line that boasts Matt Henningsen, Keeanu Benton and Isaiah Mullens, have each made significant contributions this season.

Wide receivers Stephon Robinson Jr. (35 receptions, 489 yards, two touchdowns) and Malik Washington (34 receptions, 426 yards, two touchdowns) will be the two main targets to watch in the passing gam this weekend. They will have to find ways to make plays against a Wisconsin unit that ranks fifth in the FBS in passing yards allowed per game (159.1) and sixth in passing efficiency defense (104.9).

Northwestern has allowed 17 sacks on the year, while Wisconsin has accumulated 27 through nine games. Perhaps a key matchup on the line will be how second-team All-Big Ten tackle and Outland Trophy Watch List candidate Peter Skoronski takes on outside linebackers Nick Herbig (seven sacks, 10 tackles for loss) and Noah Burks (3.5, 6.5)

Herbig was asked on Monday if he homes in on what he could see in a one-on-one matchup or does he look broader at the Northwestern offensive scheme.

"Yeah, I think I have to look at both, the scheme and the one-on-one overall, because I think there will be chances that I get to pass rush against him one-on-one," Herbig said. "I got to go against him last year, and he's a heck of a player, great athlete.

"He's hyped up for a reason. He's a great tackle so be I'm excited up front. Looking forward to it."

Can Wisconsin continue its takeaway prowess this weekend? Northwestern has thrown eight interceptions and lost seven fumbles, while UW currently holds a +9 turnover margin in the past three games that have led to dominating victories.

With a chilly day inside Camp Randall Stadium, will it be a good day for Wisconsin's rushing attack? Northwestern comes into the game allowing 224.6 yards per game, good for 125th in the FBS, on 5.4 yards per carry. It has allowed opponents to run for 294 yards or more four times in nine games -- Michigan State (326), Nebraska (427), Michigan (294) and Minnesota (308).

Overall, Northwestern allows 26 points per game, which ranks 12th in the Big Ten.

Quarterback Graham Mertz discussed the Wildcats' defense with the similarities and differences under a new coordinator, Jim O'Neil.

"I'd say that they're always a physical defense," Mertz said on Monday. "They got No. 16 (safety Brandon Joseph) in the secondary. He's a great player. Older guys up front, a couple younger backers. As far as scheme, they're pretty similar, but they just got a couple changeups in coverage and pressures and stuff like that.

"So it's a good defense. It'll be fun challenge."

Pat Fitzgerald's defense will attempt to contain a Wisconsin rushing attack ranked 13th in the nation in yards per game (222.6). However, head coach Paul Chryst said on Thursday that junior tailback Chez Mellusi will miss the remainder of the 2021 season after suffering a left leg injury at Rutgers.

UW will need to turn to true freshman tailback Braelon Allen (661 yards, 7.1 yards per carry, six touchdowns). The Fond du Lac, Wis., native holds a streak of five straight games with over 100 yards rushing heading into Saturday's contest. Now the question becomes who will step up behind the 17-year-old to give him a breather when needed? Will redshirt sophomore Julius Davis receive more carries, or will the role of Brady Schipper expand from just seeing snaps on 3rd-and-long opportunities?

Wisconsin will need to limit the impact of linebackers Chris Bergin (111 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss) and Bryce Gallagher (72, five), along with defensive linemen Adetomiwa Adebawore (32 tackles, eight tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks, 10 quarterback hurries) and Jeremy Meiser (25 tackles, six tackles for loss, four sacks, three quarterback hurries).

Northwestern allows 189.3 yards per game through the air -- 18th in the FBS -- and its passing efficiency defense ranks among the top third in the nation (30th at 121.6). Joseph (69 tackles, one sack) leads the team with two interceptions (two) and has also recorded three pass breakups. Fellow safety Coco Azema has registered 55 tackles, two tackles for loss, three pass breakups, and two forced fumbles.

It will take on a Wisconsin aerial attack that threw for 274 yards last week and appears to be getting on track. Quarterback Graham Mertz completed 11-of-16 passes for 240 yards with three touchdowns to one interception against Rutgers. Overall, the third-year signal caller has completed 56.3% of his passes for 1,289 yards and six touchdowns to eight picks.

Can the rhythm start early this week, if needed, with wide receivers Danny Davis (24 receptions, 372 yards, one touchdown), Kendric Pryor (22, 297, two) and Chimere Dike (14, 188, one)? Tight end Jake Ferguson has caught a pass in 43 consecutive games.

Wisconsin's pass protection has improved in the past five games, allowing four sacks in the past five games. Northwestern has recorded 17 through nine games, led by Adebawore, Meiser and fellow lineman Jeffrey Pooler Jr. (a combined 12 sacks). The Wildcats have created 12 takeaways (four interceptions, eight fumble recoveries), but the Badgers have limited their turnovers to six over the last five games.

Wisconsin also won on third down last week against Rutgers, converting on 6-of-12 opportunities; however, it ranks 122nd in the nation in this category (31.7%) for the season. This could be an opportunity for the offense to gain consistency on this down, however. Northwestern unit sits tied for 95th in the nation with Boise State in third-down conversion defense (41.8%).

Update, Nov. 12: StatBroadcast reported on its database that UW went 7-of-12 on third down; however, the correct stats show 6-of-12.

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