There are still a handful of opportunities for the University of Wisconsin to enhance its profile, starting with a matchup against bubble team Michigan on Tuesday. However, after the shock of being outscored by 27 points over the final 21 minutes by the 12th-place team in the Big Ten, it’s fair to wonder if the Badgers have anything left in the emotional tank.
Twice building a 17-point lead in the early stages of the second half, the Badgers gave it all back and then some, missing on a game-winning shot and then getting pummeled in overtime in a 73-63 loss to Nebraska at Pinnacle Bank Arena.
It’s the worst loss on the tournament resume for the Badgers (14-10, 6-8 Big Ten), which was already devoid of marquee wins and growing with winnable games that molded into losses.
Here are my takeaways from Wisconsin's defeat.
Predictable Late Game Outcome
When Chucky Hepburn made a jumper to tie the game at 61 with 2:44 to go, I joked on social media that fans should get ready for his step-back jumper for the duration of the game. I was kidding but it turns out I was spot on.
Neither team scored on their next three possessions, which left Wisconsin with the ball and 31 seconds on the clock. UW called a timeout with 18.2 seconds left to draw up a play, but it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to know what UW was going to do. Hepburn has taken the last shot in UW’s two previous games with mixed results (two misses at Northwestern, a three-point make, and a miss at the buzzer Wednesday at Penn State). This one was another miss, but the reaction from his coach and teammate was telling.
Hepburn burned roughly 14 seconds off the clock before making his move, a step-back three-pointer from the edge of the center court logo that was off the mark. Almost immediately as the horn sounded, head coach Greg Gard swung his right arm across his chest at Hepburn and do so again in the huddle, a sign that he wanted him to drive with the Badgers in the bonus.
“Get in the paint,” Gard said. “Got to get in the paint. He had the ball way out top. Got to make an effort to get in the paint.”
Big Ten Network replays showed similar reactions from the bench, with Jordan Davis putting his hand up in a “what are you doing?” move and Carter Gilmore nodding his head toward the basket as Hepburn dribbled at the top of the key.
Players have said that they trust Hepburn to make the right decisions late in games, and the sophomore is UW’s leading scorer and three-point shooter. However, the Badgers have become too predictable as of late – inbound the ball to Hepburn, watch him dribble, and watch him shoot. UW has been in that situation three times in the last week and came up empty all three times.
Hepburn has played the most minutes on the team (nearly 800 minutes), yet his 54 free throws are only third on the team. A 70 percent foul shooter, Hepburn has not shown the willingness to drive into contact, choosing step-back perimeter jumpers that haven’t come within the flow of the offense.
He told reporters that he felt there was too much traffic in the lane to get a clean shot. The fact that he didn’t dribble once inside the circle or start probing gaps until it was too late in the shot clock puts some holes in that theory, and the video shows that only one Nebraska player was in the paint in the final seven seconds.
Overtime was Ugly
Wisconsin appeared to pick itself off the mat when Tyler Wahl made his first field goal on the first overtime possession. Things went south quickly from there. The Badgers missed their final seven shots from the field but not before their next three possessions ended in turnovers: Max Klesmit lost the ball, Wahl offensive foul, and a bad Hepburn pass. The Huskers scored two points off each of those turnovers to permanently swing momentum, as forward Derrick Walker (six of his 18 in overtime) made play after play with the Huskers clearing out space and letting him work.
“They are very momentum driver, and momentum reliant, and we fed them a lot of momentum,” Gard said. “A lot of this is due to our undoing and our mistakes.”
Wisconsin Can't Keep its Foot on the Gas
For the better part of the last two months, Wisconsin has constantly found ways to make things exceptionally hard on themselves by failing to close out games.
The Badgers surged to a 12-point lead in their Big Ten opener against Maryland, only to give it all back and then some by the opening minutes of the second half. Wisconsin led by 16 early in the second half at Marquette and 15 in the opening minutes of the second half against Minnesota, only to hang on for a pair of three-point victory. A little more than a week ago, the Badgers held an 18-point lead 21 seconds into the second half and saw it cut to one in the final minute.
UW had won all of those above-mentioned games until Saturday, and the struggles were team-wide. Connor Essegian was 2-for-11 in the second half and overtime, Steven Crowl and Wahl were held to 5-for-19 shooting as Nebraska used the “Big Big Lineup” to defend the two in the low post. It was effective, as Blaise Keita got Nebraska coach Fred Hoiberg’s game ball for his defense on the two and 11 rebounds, more than making up for his two points on two shots. Nebraska outscored Wisconsin by 20 when Keita was on the floor.
UW gave up 32 points in the paint, missed five consecutive shots three separate times, went 3-for-19 from three-point range after halftime (after starting 6-for-12), and missed way too many shots at the rim, partially why the Badgers managed to go just 4-for-6 from the line (all from Wahl) compared to Nebraska going 15-for-23. If the Badgers fix any one of those things, they win in regulation.
“Defensively, talk about a complete change of personality in the second half from what we were the first half,” Gard said. “Fouling too much, too much dribble penetration, too much of everything. Complete change of who we were and who we need to be successful.”
“You’re shooting six free throws because you’re not going through contact,” he added. “You’re not finishing. You’re avoided it. You’re falling away, twisting, turning, doing anything but take it through with some power through the backboard.”
“We got what we deserved. I was real brutally honest with them.”
Klesmit's Busy Day
Klesmit hasn’t been an offensive force by any stretch for Wisconsin this season. He’s the only starter not averaging double figures, had only two field goals in the last two games, and reached double figures in only three conference games.
So, Klesmit reaching double figures in the first 10:17 of the first half would equate to a surprise. However, the junior was active in getting his body into the paint for jumpers and from the outside in hitting his first four shots.
While his offense surged, Klesmit’s defense remained his big weapon. Assigned to guard Keisei Tominaga, who was averaging 16.3 points and 54 percent shooting since becoming a starter on Jan.18, not to mention averaging 27.0 points his last two games, Klesmit gave up only two points on Tominaga when he was caught chasing following a screen. That success led UW to an 11-point lead.
Nebraska simplified its offense in the second half to get Tominaga in rhythm by utilizing simple screens. It worked, as Klesmit was caught and knocked down multiple times on screens that allowed Tominaga to get open for three-point makes.
Thanks to his shot making, the Huskers scored 33 points over the final 16 minutes of regulation after scoring 28 points in the first 23 minutes and change.
“That’s not surprising because that’s how he plays,” Gard said. “He plays off that momentum and they feed off that momentum, and we didn’t do a good enough job with him.”
The beating evidently took a toll on Klesmit, who was just 1-for-4 for two points and four fouls after halftime.
Gard Shouldn't Be Fired
Fans have been clamoring for a change in the program and are frankly expecting it after Athletic Director Chris McIntosh fired Paul Chryst after eight seasons and a .656 winning percentage in October. This loss drops Gard’s winning percentage to .642 in his eighth season. It’s fair to make parallels.
However, I believe that Gard has earned the right to make necessary repairs. He’s certainly to blame for the construction of the roster and the program’s inability to add impactful players from the transfer portal this past offseason is evident. The Badgers lack a true veteran voice in the locker room; received little production from the bench since moving Essegian to the starting lineup, which is making the starters run on fumes; and the lack of depth in the frontcourt has forced the team to play smaller, making them susceptible to rebounding disadvantages.
I also don’t believe this is a coaching issue as much as it is a player issue of the inability to adhere to points on the scouting report or points of emphasis, although one can argue those go hand in hand.
UW was picked to finish seventh in the league and is likely going to finish a couple of spots lower than that and is unlikely to play in the NCAA Tournament. Even so, the Badgers should bring back the majority of their roster next season if Wahl chooses to come back for a fifth year (barring any unexpected transfer losses). That will be a good foundation to build on and UW will add three solid recruits (two forwards) to that mixture. Adding a quality big or two from the portal is still important, as the program won Big Ten titles the last two times it added an experienced forward from the portal (Micah Potter and Chris Vogt).
If next season is a bust, Gard and his recently reworked $12 million buyout might be viewed differently. As of now, that’s a lot of money for an athletic department already shelling out buyout money to a football coach and likely a couple of bucks more to replace a men’s hockey coach.
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