Published Feb 26, 2023
Preview: Badgers travel to Ann Arbor for crucial contest with Wolverines
Seamus Rohrer  •  BadgerBlitz
Staff
Twitter
@seamus_rohrer

Wisconsin (16-11) vs. Michigan (16-12)

Game: Saturday, Feb. 26 inside the Crisler Center

Time: 1:00 P.M. CT

Watch: CBS

Listen: 1310 WIBA AM and 101.5 FM (Matt Lepay and Mike Lucas on the call); stream online on iHeartRadio

Prediction: Michigan 66, Wisconsin 63

Follow Online: The Badgers' Den

Twitter: @Badger_Blitz

Betting Line: Michigan -5

PRE-GAME NOTES

After earning its first double-digit win since December, Wisconsin is set to rematch with Michigan in what's sure to be a hostile road environment. The Badgers faithful at the Kohl Center were especially raucous when Hunter Dickinson, Juwan Howard and Michigan played there earlier this month on Valentine's Day. The home crowd in Ann Arbor seems primed to return the favor.

The path for Wisconsin has become very clear as March draws close. The Badgers will likely need to break even in the Big Ten, or go on an improbable Big Ten Tournament run, in order to hear their name called on Selection Sunday. Wisconsin is just under .500 in the conference at 8-9, and three regular season games remain. One is against No.4 Purdue.

That said, this game against Michigan becomes one of the most critical of the season. In order to sweep the Wolverines, Wisconsin must replicate the tenacity that enabled them to down Michigan just a couple weeks prior.

One of the biggest factors in the Badgers' five-point victory was their work on the offensive glass. They grabbed 15 offensive rebounds to Michigan's eight, which was crucial not only to create second chance opportunities but to ignite the home crowd. Despite a tough day shooting the ball, Tyler Wahl led the Badgers in that department, coming down with five offensive boards.

Connor Essegian had a career-high 23 points in the first game, which was plenty encouraging at the time. But perhaps more encouraging than the point total was the way in which he scored. Essegian didn't rely on his usual catch-and-shoot three pointer — he was 2-of-7 from deep. Instead, he found other ways to score, moving well off the ball and cutting into open lanes to create opportunities for himself.

Wisconsin has been adept recently at limiting opponents' star power, and they'll need to keep it up Sunday. Dickinson, who averages 17.4 points, was held to 12 in the first meeting. Jett Howard, a rangy, athletic sniper with a 6-foot-8' build, was held to 9 points and 1-of-6 from three point land.

Much of the attention will once again be focused on Dickinson's matchup with Steven Crowl in the post, and rightfully so. It's hard to say who "won" the matchup the first time around. Their point and rebounding totals were almost identical, and while Dickinson shot with greater efficiency, Crowl was the superior facilitator dishing out six assists. Ultimately, though, Wisconsin was able to contain the dynamic center and limit his overall impact on the game.

Michigan has too many talented scorers to hold them all down, but Wisconsin was content with subpar days from Dickinson and Howard while shooting guard Kobe Bufkin dropped 21 points. Outside of Essegian, the Badgers shot poorly overall in the first game; 33.3 percent from both the field and downtown.

Another critical factor in these teams' first dance was Wisconsin's ability to hit free throws, and area they've struggled in to say the least. The Badgers hit 14-of-18 shots from the charity stripe, including a clutch 9-of-10 from Essegian. It'll be tough to replicate that kind of performance on the road in Ann Arbor, but they'll need to — knocking down foul shots was key to burying Michigan down the stretch.

Keep an eye on Chucky Hepburn. The point guard has just 20 points over the last three games, during which he's shot 28 percent. The mini-slump isn't necessarily a cause for alarm, as he had a similar three game stretch the bled into the Battle 4 Atlantis, after which he bounced back with four straight games in double figures. Against Michigan the first time around, Hepburn shot a dismal 1-of-9 from the field. He's primed for a bounce-back performance.

The Wolverines are still a good defensive team, largely because of their tendency to create turnovers and block shots. Their block percentage, steal percentage and non-steal turnover percentage are all in the upper echelon nationally, per KenPom. In the first meeting, Wisconsin got blocked five times but did well to protect the ball, only coughing up five turnovers.

The magnitude of this game for Wisconsin, with Purdue lurking around the corner, is difficult to overstate. The same goes for Michigan, with both teams clawing to improve their resumes. In front of what should be an unforgiving crowd, the Badgers will look to sweep a rival and earn another Quad 1 win.

Projected Starting Five (Wisconsin)
Pos.WISCONSIN HT/WTPTSREBAST

G

Chucky Hepburn (So)

6-2, 205

12.4

3.0

2.9

G

Max Klesmit (Jr.)

6-3, 200

7.5

2.6

1.4

G

Connor Essegian (Fr.)

6-4, 185

11.7

3.5

0.9

F

Tyler Wahl (Sr.)

6-9, 225

11.3

6.2

2.5

C

Steven Crowl (Jr.)

7-0, 245

11.7

7.2

2.7

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Projected Starting Five (Michigan)
Pos.MICHIGAN HT/WTPTSREBAST

G

Dug McDaniel (Fr.)

5-11, 160

7.8

3.2

3.6

G

Kobe Bufkin (So.)

6-4, 195

12.9

4.1

2.9

G

Jett Howard (Fr.)

6-8, 215

14.4

2.7

2.1

F

Terrance Williams (Jr.)

6-7, 225

6.7

6.2

0.9

C

Hunter Dickinson (Jr.)

7-1, 260

17.4

8.6

1.4

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