Preview: Badgers face Buckeyes in opening round of Big Ten Tournament

Wisconsin (17-13) vs. Ohio State (13-18)

Game: Wednesday, March 8 inside the United Center

Time: 5:30 P.M. CT

Watch: BTN

Listen: 1310 WIBA AM and 101.5 FM (Matt Lepay and Mike Lucas on the call); stream online on iHeartRadio

Prediction: Wisconsin 73, Ohio State 69

Follow Online: The Badgers' Den

Twitter: @Badger_Blitz

Betting Line: Ohio State -1

After squeaking by Minnesota for a win, Wisconsin will play Ohio State in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament. It'll be the first game of the tournament overall, followed by Minnesota and Nebraska.

The Badgers beat Ohio State, 65-60, back on Feb. 2 to snap a three-game skid. It was a solid all-around team effort, with four starters notching double-digit points. It wasn't the prettiest win, however. After leading by 16 at the half and 10 with under five minutes to go, the Badgers offense went stale in the second half, only managing 22 points and nearly allowing the Buckeyes to complete the comeback.

This time around, Ohio State won't have their center Zed Key, who was declared done for the season on Feb. 22 with surgery on his shoulder. The center was averaging 10.8 points and 7.5 rebounds and was a crucial aspect of what the Buckeyes did in the paint. Ohio State is 2-2 since loosing the big man, and freshman Felix Okpara has started the last five games at the five spot.

At 6-foot-11, Okpara has size and has shot the ball at a whopping 71.4 percent since taking over as the starter. Regardless, he's averaged just over four field goal attempts per game in that time, and isn't the offensive weapon his predecessor was.

This is big news for Wisconsin, because it was able to will itself to a win in the regular-season finale against Minnesota by attacking an inferior front court. It appears as though that option will be on the table once again for the Badgers.

The first time around, Wisconsin wasn't able to get hot from downtown, connecting on just 6-of-20 shots from long range (30 percent). The Buckeyes were even colder, though, hitting 4-of-14 (28.6 percent). Ohio State is a good three-point shooting team, averaging nearly 36 percent from long range on the season. The Badgers will need to replicate what they did with their perimeter defense in order to advance Wednesday evening.

The primary culprit in their hot three-point shooting is the exciting freshman, Bryce Sensabaugh. He leads them in scoring with 16.5 points-per-game, as well as made threes with 59. The forward is an extremely efficient scorer, shooting 48.1 percent from the field and 41.5 percent from deep. He's dangerous every time he touches the ball, from anywhere on the court.

Senior Sean McNeil, who's been coming off the bench since the middle of February, is also a potent three-point shooter. He's less efficient than Sensabaugh, but he's still second on the team in made threes and is liable to get hot at any time.

It's been a down season for Ohio State, as they sit at 13-18 with just five conference wins. They suffered a nine-game loosing streak from Jan. 24 to Feb. 23. And yet, they're still in the upper echelon of many important statistical metrics, so much so that they're considered one of the dark horses in the tournament. They're currently favored over Wisconsin by one point.

Despite being 2-10 in their last 12 games, the Buckeyes boast the 21st most efficient offense in the nation, according to KenPom. As mentioned, they shoot the three ball well. They're top-50 in offensive turnover percentage, block percentage and steal percentage. They hit their free throws; 74.5 percent of them, to be exact. They shoot over 50 percent on two-point shots.

Evidently, the numbers don't quite add up here for Ohio State. What's even more perplexing is that when they lose, it tends to be convincing. In their most recent 12-game stretch, only two of their 10 losses have been within five points.

On paper, Ohio State has certain statistical advantages over Wisconsin. But in reality, the Badgers have won nearly twice as many conference games as the Buckeyes, and they've already beat them once, on the road, when Ohio State still had their starting center. Vegas giving an edge to the Buckeyes, however slight, is indicative of how much weight advanced analytics can carry (it's worth noting that KenPom also has Ohio State winning by one point).

For Wisconsin, the recipe shouldn't be too complex. Just like they did against Minnesota, the Badgers should live in the paint offensively — make the Buckeyes try to defend their big men. Tyler Wahl and Steven Crowl should be the go-to options once again.

When it comes to March Madness, this feels like a must-win for Wisconsin. Failing to advance past the opening round of the conference tournament would likely be the final nail in the coffin.

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