MADISON, Wis. – The harsh reality hit the University of Wisconsin men’s basketball team hard on Sunday night. Not only were the Badgers not competing in the NCAA Tournament for the second time in the previous four tournaments, they weren’t even that close to an at-large bid.

Playing one of the top-15 toughest schedules in the country didn’t mean much when the Badgers lost too many opportunities to improve their resume with a poor scoring margin (+1.1), middle-of-the-pack offensive efficiency (151st via kenpom.com), and lacking more quality of wins. All of those factors contributed to UW having a NET ranking of 80 and going 11-9 in games decided by two possessions or loss or in overtime. When the bracket was released, the Badgers weren’t among the last four teams out of the field, all of which had a NET ranking at least 20 spots ahead of them.

It's begged the “what if” question since UW was eliminated from the Big Ten Tournament on Wednesday (trailing by as many as 27 points to Ohio State before losing by six). What if Wisconsin could have found a way to make one more shot, delivered one better block out, or got one more break to go their way?

There are plenty of painful and impactful losses to choose from that it’s hard to pick, but here are five games that likely prevented Wisconsin from being an NCAA Tournament team in 2023.

Opponent Rating: Quad 1

Result: 63-61 loss

Purdue won the Big Ten by three games in 2023, something no team in the league has done since 2014 and accomplished only twice since 2009. However, the Badgers and Boilermakers battled in a game where no team led by more than six points. It was the last opportunity for Wisconsin to notch a Quad-1 regular season win and it looked poised to do it after Max Klesmit (19 points) put Wisconsin up, 57-56, with 3:30 remaining.

As was the case multiple times throughout the regular season, the Badgers’ offense dried up in the game’s final possessions. UW didn’t make another field goal (0-for-4) and not getting a chance to attempt a game-tying bucket with Purdue fouling up three.

The win would have given the Badgers a win over the Big Ten regular season champions, the eventual Big Ten Tournament champions, and a team that earned a No.1 seed in the NCAA Tournament (the marquee victory UW desperately needed). A win would have given Wisconsin a first-round bye but a matchup with Illinois in the 7/10 game, not ideal after the Illini swept the regular season meetings.

The loss ended UW’s conference home record at 5-5, losing those games by a combined 19 points (3.8 per game).

Opponent Rating: Quad 1

Result: 69-68 overtime loss

Untested against three subpar opponents and grinding out a 43-42 victory over Dayton to open the tournament, Wisconsin trailed by 15 points early in the second half and by eight late in regulation but ripped off an 11-0 run to lead by three late.

That’s when the first bad break happened to UW, as Zach Clemence rebounded his missed three-pointer and passed to Kevin McCullar for the tying three. Replays showed Clemence's right foot appeared to come down out of bounds before he passed the ball back out, but guard Chucky Hepburn chose to let the ball drift toward out of bounds instead of grabbing it (he also air-balled the winning shot on the ensuing possession on a step-back perimeter jumper).

The second bad break came on the game’s final possession. Tyler Wahl – who tied his career-high with 23 points – put UW ahead by one with 21 seconds left but the senior couldn’t grab a rebound on Clemence’s deep three-pointer after UW’s defense clogged things inside the arc. Freshman Connor Essegian got caught watching the rebound and didn’t block out reserve guard Bobby Pettiford, who grabbed the loose ball and, while staying airballed, converted an acrobatic layup at the buzzer for his only basket of the game.

A victory over the defending national champions would have been a major boost for UW early in the season, not to mention a Quad-1 win over a team that finished No.9 in the NET rankings. Considering what Kansas did this season (Big 12 regular season and No.1 seed), it would be a huge win to put in front of the committee. The Badgers would have played Tennessee the next day (currently No.4 in the NET) instead of playing USC in a Quad-1 game (a game UW won 64-59).

Opponent Rating: Quad 1

Result: 66-63 loss

UW could have won either of its games against the Wildcats in 2023, but while the Badgers only scored three points on their final seven possessions of a 54-52 home loss on February 2, missing their final seven shots in a one-possession loss was far worse.

A game pushed back due to a COVID outbreak in the Northwestern program (which may have also contributed to a flat performance two days later in Maryland), Wisconsin scored only 17 points on its final 22 possessions of the first half but made the second half competitive. There was a total of 16 lead changes in the second half, but the Badgers missing nine of their last 10 shots over the final six minutes was the difference.

“It was uncharacteristic of us,” Wahl said. “We usually make some big plays or knock down some tough shots, but the ball just wasn’t bouncing our way … We started off a little slow, we ended a little slow, and that was the game.”

A victory would have given Wisconsin seven Quad 1 road/neutral victories on the season, an impressive total that would have caught the eye of the committee. While UW still would have been the No.10 seed in the Big Ten Tournament, Northwestern would have fallen from the No.2 seed all the way to No.8.

Opponent Rating: Quad 3

Result: 78-75 loss

As important as adding quality wins to a team’s profile, it’s imperative to avoid bad losses and Wisconsin had an ugly one immediately after its third-place finish in the Battle 4 Atlantis.

The Demon Deacons shot 53.7 percent from the floor, 56.0 percent in the second half, and averaged 1.2 points per possession. A chunk of that came early, as the visitors made nine in a row after missing their first shot of the game.

Point guard Tyree Appleby dropped 32 points on Wisconsin, including 20 in a near-perfect second half (6-for-7 FGs, 3-for-4 3FGs, 5-for-5 FTs). He did a lot of that after the Badgers changed how they were guarding ball screens, as Appleby adjusted by staying in attack mode and UW was unable to get the ball out of his dominant right hand.

Like many of its games, Wisconsin had a prolonged scoring drought that was costly. From the 12:54 mark to the 2:49 mark in the first half, when Wake Forest went 1-for-13 from the field, Wisconsin was just 3-for-11 with six turnovers. Foreshadowing of what was to come in Big Ten play, the Badgers didn’t make a field goal for the final 2:38, while Wake Forest went 3-for-4 over that stretch to lock up the win.

Opponent Rating: Quad 1

Result: 87-79 in overtime

Wisconsin appeared to have won an important late season road game when Connor Essegian (career-high 24 points) hit a jumper with 25.1 seconds left, Klesmit blocked Michigan guard Kofi Bufkin at the rim with nine seconds remaining, and Kamari McGee – playing the second half in place of the injured Hepburn – hit two free throws to extend the lead to 68-65 with 8.1 seconds left.

However, McGee was unable to foul Bufkin to put Michigan on the free throw line and Jordan Davis put himself on the ground trying to contest an inbound pass to Hunter Dickinson with 2.1 seconds left. Dickinson gathered himself and drained a 30-footer to force overtime, an extra session that Michigan dominated.

UW winning this game would have vaulted the Badgers all the way up to the No.8 seed in the Big Ten Tournament and a date with Rutgers – another opponent UW lost to at the buzzer (58-57 in Madison on Feb.18).

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