Published Feb 2, 2023
Cold Stretches Crushing Wisconsin's NCAA Tournament Profile
Benjamin Worgull  •  BadgerBlitz
Senior Writer
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@TheBadgerNation

The NCAA mandated that the University of Wisconsin take two days off after the Badgers were unable to take an off day through their three-game-in-six-days grind. It was sorely needed and probably highly reflective.

Wisconsin enters the final full month of the regular season in dire straits. A chance to repeat as Big Ten champions basically gone, trailing No.1-ranked Purdue by five games, the Badgers (12-8, 4-6) sit in 11th place in the conference after going 2-6 in January.

One place behind them is Ohio State, which will host the Badgers tonight at Value City Arena (6 p.m./FS1). The two teams can empathize with one another. Ohio State (11-10, 3-7) has also lost seven of eight, four by four points or less and others in brutal fashion. The Buckeyes were tied with Indiana with 5:37 to go in the first half last Saturday. They went into the locker room down 16, the final margin of victory.

“They were playing well Saturday night, other than a three-minute stretch at the end of the first half,” head coach Greg Gard of the Buckeyes. “(It was) relatively even the rest of the way out.”

If any team can relate to stretches gone haywire, it’s the Badgers, who had a habitual problem during January going dormant during critical stretches. For example,

In a 79-69 loss at Illinois on January 7, Illinois flipped a two-point deficit into a 13-point lead by scoring eight points on its final five possessions of the first half and another 13 points on its first eight possessions of the second half.

In a 69-65 loss to Michigan State on January 10, the Badgers led by five points with 3:53 remaining but the Spartans scored on their final seven possessions.

In a 63-45 loss at Indiana on January 14, the Hoosiers scored 16 points on its first 11 possessions of the second half as UW struggled with ball screen coverage and back-side defense.

In a 66-63 loss at Northwestern on January 23, the Badgers scored only 17 points on its final 22 first-half possessions and ended the game missing nine of their last 10 shots, including their final seven.

In a 73-55 loss at Maryland on January 25, Wisconsin allowed 14 points in the paint in the first five minutes of the second half and had three scoring droughts of at least four minutes.

In Saturday’s 61-51 loss to Illinois, UW started 2-for-15, didn’t make a field goal in the final 4:37 of the first half, and was outscored 19-2 after tying the game at 37.

“I feel like in the beginning of the year we were doing a pretty good job of limiting the runs the other team would have, and we’d respond well,” senior Tyler Wahl said. “Right now, we just haven’t been able to get a stop on defense. They go on their runs, we call timeout, and nothing really happens. They just continue to do whatever they want to do.”

Wisconsin is allowing 96.0 points per 100 possessions to rank 36th nationally in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency rankings. The number still validates the Badgers as an above-average defense team, but it’s UW’s highest points per possession rating since giving up 99.1 points in 2018. That UW team finished 15-18 and missed the NCAA Tournament for the first time in 19 seasons.

“We got to be more together during those times,” guard Max Klesmit said. “We get a lead in the second half (against Illinois) and our defense dwindles a little bit and goes down the drain. (We need to play) that for a full 40 minutes and everybody being locked in from the time we get on the floor.”

While UW suffered lapses defensively, in part because Wahl missed three of the losses and Klesmit missed another two, the Badgers’ offense has been an ongoing struggle. The Badgers are 13th in the league in scoring (65.1), 12th in field goal percentage (41.8), and 12th in free throw percentage (66.3), numbers that contribute to them being ranked 128th in adjusted offensive efficiency (107.0 points per 100 possessions).

Gard stated the obvious Tuesday that this year's group wasn't built to have a lot of possessions to outscore teams, but was a squad designed around three returning starters in Wahl, junior Steven Crowl, and guard Chucky Hepburn.

He issued a challenge that their teammates had to do a better job creating opportunities for them to get more shots, and that the trio needed to play better. Hepburn is shooting 38.0 percent over the last seven games, including 11-for-33 in UW’s three losses last week. He showed signs of coming out of the skid by making six of his final eight shots Saturday.

For Crowl and Wahl, the Badgers have talked about the necessity of more consistent entry passes to them in the post. Wisconsin averages 30.5 points on two-point buckets, ranking them 336 out of 363 D-1 teams and fourth worst among major conferences.

It’s a moot point, however, if Crowl and Wahl are ineffective. Wahl sat for more minutes (21) than he played (19) against Illinois by getting himself into foul trouble, while Crowl only attempted one field goal in the paint in the second half Saturday.

“I know he’s active, he’s popping, he’s doing different things, but he has to have more of a presence,” Gard said of Crowl. “He has to command the ball more in (the paint).

“Those three guys have to be more impactful in the game.”

Wisconsin dropped to No.77 in the NCAA NET rankings Thursday, weighed down in part by its 2-6 record in Quad 1 games. UW hasn’t won a Quad 1 game (playing a team in the top 30 in the NET at home, top 75 on the road, and top 50 at neutral sites) since its overtime win at Iowa on December 11 in overtime, having lost five such games in that category.

Including tonight, UW has Quad 1 games left at Penn State on Feb. 8 and at home against Rutgers on Feb. 18 and Purdue on March 2. With 11 guaranteed games left, time is not on their side.

"We've got to play better,” Gard said. “We’ve got to play better offensively. We’ve got to play better defensively. I don’t think it’s any secret. It hasn’t been for a lack of effort … There isn’t anything magical that’s going to get said or be done.”

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