Previewing Illinois with Rivals.com's Orange and Blue News
Saturday morning inside Memorial Stadium in Champaign, the No. 6 Wisconsin Badgers look to stay undefeated against Illinois.
UW (6-0 overall, 3-0 Big Ten) took care of business in a 38-0 victory over Michigan State last weekend. Now, the Badgers hope to spoil the Fighting Illini's homecoming festivities with its second road win.
Illinois (2-4, 0-3) comes off a rough 42-25 loss to Michigan where it found itself down by four touchdowns before mounting a comeback that was eventually squashed by the Wolverines.
Here are significant stats, players to know and key insight from Orange and Blue News' Doug Bucshon.
KEY 2019 TEAM STATS
*Record: 2-4 overall, 0-3 Big Ten
*Points per game: 30.7
*Opponents points per game: 30.7
*Rushing yards per game: 146.,7
*Opponents rushing yards per game: 201.8
*Passing yards per game: 190.8
*Opponents' passing yards per game: 232.7
*Third-down conversions: 36%
*Opponents' third-down conversions: 36%
*Total turnovers created: 14 (four interceptions, 10 fumble recoveries)
*Total turnovers given up: 9 (four interceptions, five fumbles lost)
*Sacks: 15
*Sacks allowed: 19
NAMES TO KNOW: OFFENSE
*Quarterback Brandon Peters: 58.3 completion percentage, 797 yards, 10 touchdowns, four interceptions
*Quarterback Matt Robinson: 56.1 completion percentage, 348 yards, one touchdown, zero interceptions
*Running back Reggie Corbin: 67 rushes, 396 yards, 5.9 yards per carry, three touchdowns.
*Running back Dre Brown: 37 rushes, 210 yards, 5.7 yards per carry, two touchdowns
*Wide receiver Ricky Smalling: 24 catches, 225 yards, one touchdown
*Wide receiver Josh Imatorbhebhe: 20 catches, 322 yards, five touchdowns
*Wide receiver Trevon Sidney: 16 catches, 123 yards, one touchdown
NAMES TO KNOW: DEFENSE
*Linebacker Dele Harding: 65 tackles, 5.5 tackles or loss, two interceptions, one forced fumble
*Linebacker Jake Hansen: 48 tackles, 5.5 tackles or loss, 2.5 sacks, one interception, three fumble recoveries, five forced fumbles
*Defensive back Nate Hobbs: 31 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss, five pass breakups
*Defensive back Kerby Joseph: 30 tackles, three pass breakups
*Defensive lineman Oluwole Betiku, Jr.: 28 tackles, 10.5 tackles for loss, seven sacks, six quarterback hurries
*Defensive lineman Ayo Shogbonyo: 21 tackles, 7.5 tackles
1. Illinois sits at 2-4 overall, 0-3 in the Big Ten heading into this week's contest. We'll ask more specifically about the offense and defense in a bit, but what have been the general impressions of this program overall in 2019?
It’s been disappointing. Illinois took care of two early opponents in Akron and UConn, two struggling programs, but there were other games that looked winnable on paper heading into the season. An unexpected loss to Eastern Michigan and lopsided defeat at the hands of Minnesota were particularly disheartening. The Illini weren’t really competitive against the Gophers. A loss to Wisconsin will be the fifth straight, and Illinois will be an underdog in every game left on the schedule aside from Rutgers on Nov. 2.
Fans expected Lovie Smith to have the program in a better place in Year 4, but it just hasn’t come together. He has added a few playmakers, but hasn’t improved the overall depth of talent, and he hasn’t shown a willingness to make some necessary changes on defense. That unit is once again among the bottom teams in the Big Ten, despite Lovie’s credentials as a successful defensive coach at the NFL level.
This is a program in desperate need for something positive to happen. They flashed better play in a second-half comeback against Michigan last week, so maybe that will carry over. The second half of the season is a critical period for Smith and this Illinois program. They must find a way to flip the script and get the needle pointed up. Athletic director Josh Whitman has been very supportive of Lovie up to this point, but the calls for change will get much louder if things don’t improve soon.
2. We always ask about injuries. Who's out, who's iffy, who's back -- and how could that impact the game on Saturday?
Starting quarterback Brandon Peters went down with an apparent head injury against Minnesota two weeks ago, and he didn’t play in the loss to Michigan on Saturday.
Wide receiver Trevon Sidney sat out last week with a lower body injury, and he was on crutches on the sideline. If Sidney sits again, you’ll see more snaps for senior Dominic Stampley, freshman Casey Washington, and former walk-on Donnie Novorro. That trio combined for eight catches for 66 yards last week, but Sidney’s is more consistent. Stampley, who got the most reps in the slot, has had issues with drops.
Back-up defensive end Isaiah Gay has missed consecutive games and is likely out again. He has just four tackles on the season and no sacks or TFLs, but he’s a depth piece who has played quite a bit in the past. Ayo Shogbonyo and Owen Carney will share the snaps opposite strong side defensive end Oluwole Betiku Jr.
Freshman quarterback Isaiah Williams has been banged up. He rotated with Matt Robinson last week early in the game but was sidelined in the second half. If Williams and Peters both can’t go, Robinson will be the full-time starter. If Williams is healthy, you could see him take some snaps to mix things up. He’s an elusive runner and is more of guy who they will call read options and RPOs for.
3. Last week, Matt Robinson played at quarterback in place of Brandon Peters due to injury. Will Peters return this week, and who should Wisconsin fans know about on this side of the ball, which of course includes a standout back in Reggie Corbin?
As of mid-week, it doesn’t appear that Peters will be ready to go on Saturday, but Lovie doesn’t give specific updates on injuries. Robinson played pretty well against a solid Michigan defense, completing 16-of-25 passes for 192 yards and a touchdown. He made some costly rookie mistakes, however, including two fourth quarter fumbles that gave Michigan the ball deep in Illinois territory, allowing the Wolverines to surge ahead and put the game away.
Corbin is still the go-to guy on the offense, and he needs to have a big day on Saturday and keep the ball out of the hands of the Wisconsin offense. He hasn’t quite been himself, though. Since coming back from hip pointer that caused him to miss parts of two games, Corbin hasn’t shown the same burst or ability to change directions. He averaged just 1.6 yards per carry last week. Dre Brown is another running back to watch. He’s having a solid senior season, and he’s also averaging 27.6 yards returning kicks.
USC grad transfer Josh Imatorbhebhe is emerging as a playmaker in the passing game. Though he doesn’t have track-star speed, he’s a long and physical receiver with a knack for winning jump balls. Imatorbhebhe is particularly effective in the red zone, and he now leads the team with 322 receiving yards and five touchdowns. Robinson will also target junior wide receiver Ricky Smalling and sophomore tight end Daniel Barker, who will lineup wide in the spread offense.
4. The defense is giving up almost 435 yards per contest to opposing offenses. Where has this unit truly struggled, but which players have also given teams the most trouble through six games?
This group just can’t stop the run. Big Ten teams are averaging 5.9 yards per carry against the Illini defense and a whopping 324 yards per game, both the highest numbers in the conference. When you’re this bad, there are multiple problems. Most feel the scheme is inferior; Lovie still plays the Tampa-2 system that he used in the NFL. The defensive line is getting pushed around, the tackling has been poor, and there’s a general lack of speed in the back seven.
On a positive note, Illinois excels at taking the ball away, which has been a big focus for Lovie during his tenure at the school and a staple of his defenses throughout his career as a head coach. Illinois has a league-high 14 takeaways in six games, including 10 forced fumbles. WLB Jake Hansen leads the way with five forced fumbles. Hansen has been a bright spot and is a key guy against the Badger rushing attack, along with MLB Dele Harding.
Strong-side defensive end Oluwole Betiku Jr. was selected by Rivals.com analyst Mike Farrell as the No. 40 overall player in the nation. He’s among the leaders in all of NCAAFB in both sacks (7.0) and tackles for loss (10.5). A physical specimen and weight room warrior, Betiku is primarily a bull rusher who can collapse the pocket and make plays. But like most of the Illini D, he needs to be much better defending the run.
5. On homecoming weekend, where do you think Illinois could give Wisconsin some trouble? On the flip side, is the Badgers' rushing attack the biggest worry Lovie Smith's team needs to worry about? Where else could UW take advantage in the Big Ten West showdown?
The running game is always the biggest concern when you play Wisconsin. It’s been that way for a long time now, and Illinois must find a way to slow down the power running game if they hope to keep the game within reach. Lovie is going to have to mix things up and give some different looks that the Wisconsin staff hasn’t seen on film. Illinois may have to throw caution to the wind, stack the box, and attack more, then hope they can turn Jack Coan over if they can put him in passing situations. It’s obviously a tall order.
Offensively, the Illini will have to be balanced, win the battle for field position, and sustain some drives. If Robinson has to put the ball in the air 40 times, there’s just no way Illinois can compete. I can see this Wisconsin defense forcing some negative plays if they get Illinois’ back to the wall. Linebacker Zack Baun is a guy Wisconsin likes to send after the quarterback, and Illinois probably won’t be able to block him. The Michigan linebackers teed off on Illinois last week, and we can expect the same from Baun and his running partner Chris Orr.
6. Lastly, what's your game prediction, and why?
Jonathan Taylor will very likely pad his Heisman resume against an Illini defense that has been manhandled against the run. And I wouldn’t be shocked to see a 100-yard game from freshman Nakia Watson. There’s shouldn’t be much reason for Coan to toss the ball around much. He’ll just have to complete the easy throws and pick up a few third downs. The Badgers have a mismatch against the Illinois defensive line, and they should roll. Illinois would need to score 40-plus points and get a career game out of quarterback Matt Robinson to keep this competitive, and that’s just not doable against the stingy Wisconsin defense.
Wisconsin 48 Illinois 13