Wisconsin needs a victory to get back on track a third of the way through the season. Will that happen for UW this week on the road away from Camp Randall Stadium against a familiar face turned foe?

BadgerBlitz.com's "Pre-Snap Read" provides three keys to a Wisconsin (1-3 overall, 0-2 Big Ten) win over Illinois (2-4, 1-2) on Saturday (2:30 p.m., BTN), along with our staff predictions for the clash in Champaign.

Wisconsin currently holds 12 turnovers to its name through its first four games, but it only has forced three, netting a -9 on the margin. On the flip side, Illinois has produced 10 takeaways and a +4 turnover margin.

For UW to cross back over state borders with a win in hand, it absolutely needs to limit sudden change opportunities that have been abundant.

I've said this ad nauseam it feels, but two fourth quarter turnovers in 2019 doomed Wisconsin's chances of icing a challenging game against Illinois. The program, then led by former head coach Lovie Smith, took advantage and eventually came away with a 24-23 upset win.

Illinois' passing game is not Penn State's, not Notre Dame's and not Michigan's. Wisconsin will not take each week's opponents lightly, but the secondary should have ample opportunity to subdue any aerial attack posed by quarterback Brandon Peters and his receiving targets.

However, the ground game for Illinois stands out, averaging nearly 188 yards per contest. Running backs Chase Brown and Josh McCray have combined for 712 rushing yards on 6.4 yards per carry.

Thankfully for Wisconsin, its calling card comes in constricting its opponents' respective rushing prowesses. UW leads the nation in rush defense, giving up a minuscule 45.2 yards per contest. The most an opponent has gained this season came last week against Michigan -- 112 yards, but just on 2.5 yards per carry.

Shut down the Illinois rushing attack, and Wisconsin defenders can pin their collective ears back and put pressure on Peters, who has not looked sharp this season (49.3% completion percentage, 398 yards, one touchdown, one interception).

Wisconsin's ground game has struggled the last two weeks, gaining just 78 and 43 yards against Notre Dame and Michigan, respectively. Illinois has looked solid against the run as well, giving up only 125.2 rushing yards per contest on 3.7 yards per carry. The most it has allowed in the last four weeks has been 133 on 33 carries against Virginia on Sept. 11. The Badgers need to regain its form for their bread and butter, but will it be this week?

That remains to be seen. However, Illinois has allowed 292.2 passing yards per game in its half dozen outings this season. In three conference contests against Nebraska, Maryland and Purdue, Bielema's defense has given up an average of 286.3 yards via the air.

Wisconsin will have to contain a pass rush that has registered 15 sacks, but if it can, quarterback Graham Mertz (56.6% completion percentage, 681 yards, two touchdowns, six interceptions) and wide receivers Danny Davis, Kendric Pryor and Chimere Dike could elevate the offense here. The talent is there, and we have seen flashes from an aerial attack averaging 189.5 yards per game. Now it needs to be more consistent (which frankly, the entire unit needs to be).

UW designated Mertz and tight end Jake Ferguson (15 receptions, 108 yards) as questionable on its preliminary status report on Monday. However, head coach Paul Chryst provided positive updates for Saturday's game during his weekly Thursday availability with reporters.

"He's been able to practice, and that part's been good, so expecting to have everyone there," Chryst said of Mertz. "Ferg's been able to practice. That part's all been good."

Wisconsin cannot hamper itself with self-inflicted errors and turnovers, and it will need something from its offense to generate yardage -- and most importantly, points -- on Saturday. Who or what position group steps up will be worth watching.

The only thing I feel confident in is Wisconsin's rush defense, and though Illinois' ground game currently is its strength, advantage still goes to the Badgers and their elite run-stuffing unit that allows 1.6 yards per carry. Let me bold here and say if Jim Leonhard's defense holds firm as expected, I don't know if the Illini offense will score a touchdown.

A boost from special teams would be advantageous, but I don't expect that in the return games with Illinois punter Blake Hayes and kicker James McCourt.

The offense either will explode with a frenzied onslaught, or look a hint better but still have questions to answer after this game. I'm not that confident in this at the moment (perhaps I'm in a definite "show me" phase currently), but I think Chryst's team does just enough offensively to come away with a much-needed W before its non-conference finale against Army.

Wisconsin 17, Illinois 10

We started the week with Brady vs. Belichick, and we will end the week with Badgers vs. Bielema. That’s where the similarities (and excitement) likely end in comparing the matchups.

UW is in desperate need of a win but games in Champaign have been far from pretty. Wisconsin only gained 303 yards of offense four years ago and lost, 24-23, two years ago in a mistake-filled performance. Those types of games have been a common occurrence so far this season for the Badgers.

Both teams stink offensively (Illinois is ranked 97th nationally and UW is 98th), so this game will likely come down to defense. That’s where Wisconsin has a distinct advantage. While Illinois averages 187 yards on the ground, the Badgers are first nationally in allowing just 45.2 rushing yards per game and third nationally with 249.0 total yards. Illinois is 97th nationally in total defense, giving up over 417 yards per game.

If UW can’t get its offense going against the Illini, the problems with the Badgers may just be unfixable.

Wisconsin 27, Illinois 13.

I don't feel great picking the Badgers for a second week in a row, but Wisconsin has to be able to beat Illinois, right ?

UW hasn’t been able to hang when the team across from them is ranked, but they have handled their business against unranked teams. Just as they have lost their last eight against ranked teams, the Badgers have won their last eight against unranked foes -- with their last loss, coincidentally, coming against Illinois in Champaign in 2019. The last contest in Memorial Stadium was a sluggish battle with the Illini limiting Jonathan Taylor and handing UW their first loss of the season.

A date in Champaign isn’t good news for a struggling Badgers offense with the site being a house of horrors. At home against the Illini, Wisconsin has averaged 45 points per game in the last four matchups, but it has topped 28 points just once in the last six games in Champaign. I don’t have much confidence taking UW but their outstanding defense should be able to carry the squad with the Illinois defense not much to fear.

Wisconsin 24, Illinois 10