BadgerBlitz.com - Bowl Predictions: Preseason

August 28, 2012

John Veldhuis
BadgerBlitz.com Staff Writer

I'm kicking off my bowl predictions for the 2012 season today, and I hoping to update these every week as we move through the college football season. These predictions are based on how I think teams will shape up this year, and I reserve the right to be completely wrong at the end of the season. I hope you'll enjoy reading them, and don't be afraid to tweet at me and let me know how crazy I am for putting Michigan in the Gator Bowl.

It's important to remember that the actual bowl selection process is fluid, and butts in the sets and eyes on the TV screen can sometimes count more than a team's overall record. With that, I'll introduce my inaugural picks for the 2012 season.

*BadgerBlitz.com Bowl Predictions* Pre-Season
Bowl	Team 1	Team 2
BCS National Championship Game BCS No. 1 vs. BCS No. 2	Oklahoma The Sooners got all the hype last year as the preseason No. 1, but I think they actually capitalize on a strong returning cast this season. Landry Jones is back, and I have them running the table in the Big 12. Oklahoma State will give them a run for their money, but I think the Sooners get their Bedlam revenge this year.	LSU It's almost a habit now: the SEC will probably have a representative in the title game. I think LSU makes it back again, even without star cornerback Tyrann Mathieu. The Tigers should have an improved offensive attack with Zach Mettenberger under center, but I don't think they escape the SEC unscathed. A home date with Alabama looks like trouble, and they have to travel to Fayetteville this year too.
Rose Bowl Game Big Ten #1/BCS vs. Pac-12 #1/BCS	Wisconsin If you read my season prediction, this shouldn't be a surprise. I have the Badgers heading back to Pasadena with a 12-1 record after avenging their regular season loss to Nebraska in the championship game. The offense should drop off a bit, but the defense should make strides to make up for it.	Oregon Yep, it's a rematch. I've never understood how some people are so willing to hand the Pac-12 back to USC when Oregon has won the conference each of the last three years. I've got the Ducks losing to USC the first time in Los Angeles, but getting their revenge in the title game.
Fiesta Bowl Big 12 #1/BCS vs. BCS	Oklahoma State I'm pretty bullish on Oklahoma State this year. The Cowboys lose their quarterback and best wide receiver, but this should be Mike Gundy's best defense yet. Plus, losing Weeden and Blackmon will sting, but I think the offense will still be able to score frequently. The Pokes will take Oklahoma's place in the Fiesta Bowl.	USC USC is getting a lot of hype as the pre-season No. 1, but I'm not convinced that they have what it takes to go all the way and win the national title. The skill position talent is great, but I don't think they have enough depth to beat Oregon twice this year. USC still heads to a BCS bowl at 12-1 after the Pac-12 championship game, but they'd definitely prefer to spend bowl season in Miami.
Sugar Bowl SEC #1/BCS vs. BCS	Georgia Georgia benefits from a comically easy schedule for an SEC team. The Dawgs draw just Auburn and Mississippi out of the SEC west, so any game against LSU, Alabama or Arkansas would have to wait until the title game. The Dawgs return nine starters on defense and seven on offense, and I think Mark Richt takes his team back to a BCS bowl for the first time since 2007 with an 11-2 record.	Clemson The Tigers had a high-profile breakdown on defense last year against West Virginia, but I think their offense should be good enough to get an at-large BCS bid this year. I think they end up going 11-1, with their lone loss coming to division rival Florida State. Clemson is always hard to predict, but I think they'll have their most wins under Dabo Swinney.
Orange Bowl ACC #1/BCS vs. BCS	Florida State The Seminoles are also getting a lot of hype as a national championship contender, but I don't think I can trust them enough yet to put them in the title game. Their defense is stacked with talent, and EJ Manuel returns. But even though I think they'll win the ACC, I can't help but think they'll drop a game they shouldn't to take them out of the race for a national championship.	USF The Big East still has to have its champion in a BCS bowl, but the Bulls should be a stronger team than previous Big East champs. The Bulls went 5-7 last year, but they return 15 starters and their schedule is manageable enough to make a run at a Big East title. It's a weak league, and I think the Bulls will benefit from a little more luck this time around. Louisville is their top competition for the title this year.
Capital One Bowl Big Ten #2 vs. SEC #2	Michigan State Michigan State has been hard to read for me. Their defense should be fantastic, but they have a first-time starter at quarterback and need to find some receivers. I have them falling just short in the division race after losing to the Badgers, Michigan, and Notre Dame, but a win over the Irish would put them in Indy.	Alabama No team has repeated as BCS Champions. There's going to be a big target on the Crimson Tide this year, and I'm a little concerned that their defense might be a little green with just five returning starters. I think the Tide drop about 2 games this year- road games at Arkansas and LSU look tough as usual. They might have the best offensive line in the country, and if the defense jells quickly then they'll be a good bet for another BCS bowl.
Outback Bowl Big Ten #3 vs. SEC #3/4	Nebraska Nebraska ends up in the Outback bowl as a 10-3 team after losing to the Badgers in the title game. I'm not entirely sold on the Huskers right now, but I have a hard time picking them to lose more than two Big Ten games, and they have the easiest non-conference schedule. The Huskers were easily one of the hardest teams for me to pick.	Florida Florida very well could be a sleeper in the SEC East this year, and if they beat Georgia in their annual game in Jacksonville we'll be having a different conversation. But the Gators play one of the nation's toughest schedules, and have the bad luck of drawing LSU out of the West. Throw in a tough road game at Florida State, and I think the schedule will be too much to overcome.
Gator Bowl Big Ten #4/5 vs. SEC #6	Michigan You might have guessed by now, but I'm not on the Michigan bandwagon this year. I think the Wolverines will be a better team, but will have a worse record this year. I'm expecting them to drop one or both of their games against Alabama and Notre Dame, and I think they end up losing to Nebraska and Ohio State on the road. That means a 9-3 record and a trip to the Gator Bowl.	South Carolina South Carolina is kind of in the same boat as Florida- the schedule isn't very favorable to them. The Gamecocks draw Arkansas and LSU this season, and have to play in the Swamp as well. I'm projecting the Gamecocks to beat Georgia at home, but Steve Spurrier's team will finish the season at 9-3. It doesn't help that the Gamecocks return just two starters on the offensive line.
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl Big Ten #4/5 vs. Big 12 #4	Illinois Purdue gets most of the credit as a 'sleeper' in the division, but I have Illinois as the next bowl team after the Badgers. The Illini bring back 14 starters and what should be a talented defense, but road trips to Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio State might do them in. Tim Beckman goes to a bowl in his first year with an 8-4 record.	TCU It's always tough to switch conferences, so I'm expecting TCU to struggle a little bit in its first season in the Big 12. I have both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State in BCS bowls, so the Horned Frogs get a boost up to the Buffalo Wild wings Bowl with an 8-4 record. After a 7-0 start, the Horned Frogs have a rough five game stretch where I think they go 1-4. Look for the Frogs to return a very experienced team and improve in 2013.
Meineke Car Care Bowl Big Ten #6 vs. Big 12 #6	Iowa Iowa is a hard team to figure out too. The Hawkeyes could be a darkhorse in their division, and have one of the easier schedules in the Big Ten this year. But I think Kirk Ferentz' team has too many question marks to take advantage of their schedule right now. I think Iowa ends up with an 8-4 record, but be sure to pay attention on Oct. 13 when the Hawks take on Michigan State in East Lansing.	Texas Tech Texas Tech makes it to a bowl after missing out on the postseason last year. The Red Raiders benefit from a soft non-conference schedule, and they return 17 starters from last season's 5-7 squad. They get Oklahoma, West Virginia, and Texas at home, but I'm not sure they'll be able to knock off the top dogs in Lubbock this year. The ingredients are there for more success.
Ticket City Bowl Big Ten #7 vs. C-USA #6/7	Purdue Purdue makes it to a bowl game with a 6-6 record. The dark horse potential is there, but I'm not convinced that this is the right Purdue team to shock the world and claim a Leaders division title. They'll need to figure out their quarterback situation, and their home game against Wisconsin has the makings of an upset if the Badgers aren't prepared, but I think the talent gap is too wide at this point in time.	East Carolina The TicketCity Bowl has one of the last picks out of C-USA, so it's kind of a crapshoot at this point. The Pirates do return 15 starters after missing out on a bowl last season due to injuries and turnovers. If they can stay healthy and get a few more balls to bounce their way then the Pirates should be looking at second bowl game in the last three years.
Little Caesars Pizza Bowl Big Ten #8 vs. MAC #1/2	North-western Northwestern should make a bowl game for the fifth straight year after the 2012 season. If they can win all of their non-conference games, or even three of them, they should be able to get a sixth win by beating Minnesota, Indiana or maybe even Penn State on the road. Pat Fitzgerald always has his team ready to play up to competition, so it's definitely possible for the Wildcats to move up.	Ohio Don't look now, but Ohio could end up with double-digit wins this season. The Bobcats don't play Western Michigan or NIU in the regular season, and return eight starters on defense from a team that just missed out on winning the MAC last year. With an experienced defense, I think they get it done.